Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 02/01/2011

I love looking at the COT reports despite their obvious limitations; although they contain data three days old, they do provide an excellent window into market sentiment. Take for example the E-Mini COT report. For the past couple of weeks we have been noticing an increase in net-positive positions of the non-commercials - just as the S&P500 has been steadily moving closer to a major resistance level: 1300. As I mentioned in a post from two weeks ago, the shift in net-positive positions indicated that the S&P had some room to stretch. This week, the S&P not only managed to break above the 1300 level but also managed a Friday close above this level.

Commitment of Traders reports are far from being a magic crystal ball to predict the future. But taken in the right context, they can help us frame a short term bias.

Highlights of this week's COT reports:

• S&P E-Mini's report showing yet another increase in net-positive positions.
• EUR net positive positions increase, while DXY positions are now negative (for non-commercials)
• Ten Year Notes register another increase in net-short positions - suggesting further rate increase in the 10YR benchmark (bye, bye, cheap mortgage rates?)
• Crude net-positive positions stay elevated - not expecting to see any decline in oil prices in the near future.

 Click on images below to enlarge:

 

Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 04/20/10

Here are the latest COT reports from 4/23/2010. The data is as of Tuesday 4/20. The graphs show the net positions for Commercials (hedgers) Non-Commercials (large speculators), and Non-Reportables (smalls speculators).

Perhaps the most interesting report is for the S&P 500 e-mini COT. Notice how the non-reportables are at odds (net long) with the non-commercials (net short). This is may be an indication of "dumb" money vs. "smart" money situation where astute players are distributing and not-so-smart, small players buy. I know I have already commented about the dangers of being bearish in the face of such a relentless uptrend but, as we learned in 2008, better safe and sorry than burned and full of regret.

Also interesting to note, continued bearish sentiment for the Euro but slightly less bearish sentiment for the British Pound.JPY sentiment is still net-short.

So, without further ado, here are the graphs:

Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 04/13/10

Here are the latest COT reports posted on Friday, April 16th and containing information as of Tuesday, April 13th:

Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 03/30/10

These are the April 2nd 2010 COT reports, containing data as of March 30th 2010. Graph show net positions for Commercials (hedgers), Non-Commercials (large speculators), and Non-Reportables (small speculators).

Highlights for this weeks reports:
1. S&P 500 e-mini - still seeing divergence between non-reportables (increased net long position) and non-commercials (still net short). As indicated last week, this divergence is a warning sign that large speculators are trimming long positions as small traders pile in on the long side.
2. USDX COT report - shows an increase in non-commercial positions.
3. EUR and GBP - COT reports for both show increase in non-commercial short positions, reflecting the sustained bearish sentiment.
4. Commodity currencies and Crude Oil - Bullish net-long positions persist for the Loonie, Aussie, and Crude oil.
5. Japanese Yen and 10 Yr Notes - perhaps the most telling COT reports this week are the Yen and 10yr Notes reports. Both show a dramatic increase in net-short positions.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 03/23/10

These are the March 26 reports containing data as of 03/26/10. COT graphs below show net positions for Commercials (hedgers), Non-Commercials (large speculators), and Non Reportables (small speculators).

Highlights of this week's COT reports:
1. S&P (e-mini) COT Report - For the first time since October 2008, large speculators are net short. Interestingly, small speculator turned net positive this week for the first time in months. This divergence shows that smart money (non-commercials) and dumb money (non-reportables) are at odds. Isn't that the oldest story on Wall st? If what we are seeing is indeed real distribution -the process in which large players trim down profitable positions- the question must be asked: can the retail investor prop the market's momentum? At any rate, this is definitely a red flag!
2. USD COT Report - Extreme net long positions persist. This week's reading slightly higher than last week.
3. Euro COT Report - New selling pressure is evident in the increased net short positions.
4. GBP COT Report - Extreme bearishness persists and net short positions are at new highs.
5. Commodity Currencies - Both the Aussie and Loonie's COT reports show extreme net long positions are still sustained.
6. JPY COT Report - Net long speculative positions continue to decline.
7. As of this week, I am adding two new reports: Crude Oil and 10 Yr Notes.

CLICK TO VIEW LARGER IMAGE


 

Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 03/09/10

New Commitment of Traders (COT) graphs. This is the March 12 report (data as of Tuesday, March 9). Graphs display net positions for Commercials, non-Commercials, and non-Reportable traders.

Little changed since last weeks reports so we'll keep comments short. Strong net-long position are still evident in the S&P500 report as well as the dollar index, while the GBP and euro are still at extreme net-short positions.

The aussie dollar and the loonie are still gathering strength as speculators added to their net long positions - now at extreme levels.

Perhaps the only surprise this week is the Japanese yen COT report. It shows and increased net-long position which is quite contrary to what we'd expect.

CLICK ON THE GRAPHS TO ENLARGE 

S&P 500 (e-mini) COT Report

 US Dollar Index (DXY) COT Report

Euro COT Report

                                    

British Pound (GBP) COT Report

 

Australian Dollar (AUD) COT Report


















Canadian Dollar (CAD) COT Report

Japanese Yen (JPY) COT Report