Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 01/25/2011

Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 01/18/2011

This week's COT reports show a mixed signal for the S&P E-minis. The euro, however, seems undeniably stronger: non-commercials have switched from a considerable net short position to a  net long position. The same, albeit on a smaller scale, can be seen on the GBP report. This suggests more USD weakness is on the cards this week.

Click on images to enlarge:

 

Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 01/13/2011

Two noteworthy COT charts this week:

1. S&P 500 E Mini - For the first time since August is displaying net positive position for non-commercials, signaling that the S&P has a little more room to stretch upwards as it begins to flirt with a major resistance level of 1300
2. USDX - Sharp increase in net positive positions for non-commercials indicate the dollar will have the upper hand in the coming days, at least against the Euro

Click on the images below to enlarge.

PS - The data in the chart is as of 1/11/2011 (latest COT data) and not 1/13/2011

AUDCAD Head and Shoulders Completed

Just a textbook Head and Shoulders pattern: (target of measured move is somewhere near 0.9600)

AUDCAD Forming a Head and Shoulder on the 4HR Chart

After a relentless run up in favor of AUD, AUDCAD is showing some signs of slow down and looking like it's forming a head and shoulders pattern on the 4hr chart:

The 15 Year Swing

Swing traders are probably the most patient breed of Market players. Rather than taking part in a short, medium, or long term trend, they wait with extreme discipline for price to reach a level that previously proved to be a substantial turning point. Commonly referred to as Support and Resistance or Demand and Supply levels, these price levels mark the origin of a past sharp and sustained move in price.Price may drift above or below such levels for hours, days, weeks or months before returning to test them. Once they identify a quality turning point in price, swing traders will wait for the price to re-test that level, using it to define risk and potential reward.

Taking a look at the USDJPY pair, we can see a swing trade that, like a good Single Malt, is 15 years in the making. The Japanese yen has recently reached levels against the USD not seen in more than a decade and a half. On its last visit to this multi-year low, USD turned around and pushed higher against the yen for more than 3 years. This can be clearly observed in following monthly chart:

Zooming in on a 4 hour chart we can see that price is indeed finding some support at this important and broadly watched level:

This current level is an appealing long entry with a clearly defined risk (80.85) and an excellent chance for price to move up at least far enough for us to move a trailing stop comfortably above the entry level (80.12).

Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports - 04/20/10

Here are the latest COT reports from 4/23/2010. The data is as of Tuesday 4/20. The graphs show the net positions for Commercials (hedgers) Non-Commercials (large speculators), and Non-Reportables (smalls speculators).

Perhaps the most interesting report is for the S&P 500 e-mini COT. Notice how the non-reportables are at odds (net long) with the non-commercials (net short). This is may be an indication of "dumb" money vs. "smart" money situation where astute players are distributing and not-so-smart, small players buy. I know I have already commented about the dangers of being bearish in the face of such a relentless uptrend but, as we learned in 2008, better safe and sorry than burned and full of regret.

Also interesting to note, continued bearish sentiment for the Euro but slightly less bearish sentiment for the British Pound.JPY sentiment is still net-short.

So, without further ado, here are the graphs: